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Jeff Gill's avatar

“I am nothing if not a democracy of ghosts.”

That’s gonna leave a mark.

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Brendan Ross's avatar

I think you're right that there will be a market for artisanal "organic writing" (ie, human-written), just like there is for artisanal baked goods, artisanal furniture and so on. Higher-end, more bespoke, more custom. Sort of like highbrow human art was before it became mass market (think classical music, traditional visual art etc).

What gets displaced by AI, though, is a lot of mainstream popular fiction. I would guess that within 10 years, perhaps 5, a great amount of sci-fi/fantasy/romance/romantasy/mystery/similar will be AI generated in toto -- that is not AI-assisted, but AI-generated. Because this kind of material is always in high demand, people read it very quickly, they don't expect it to be Dostoevsky or, heck, even Jonathan Franzen. They just want an interesting plot, cool characters, and something that keeps moving. And AI will certainly be able to serve that up -- and as you say, most of the general reading public won't care that much. A small portion will care, though, and it will be the market for artisanal works.

A somewhat larger concern, I think, is the degree to which anyone will know what is AI and what isn't. Right now there is AI music on Spotify that isn't labeled as such. It will be easy to do the same with popular fiction, since the use of pseudonymity among writers has a long history already, and many readers view them as "brands" more than as individuals because of this (ie because the individual is hidden anyway).

The wildcard, of course, is whether the writer community (and the analogues in visual arts, music, film and so on) will succeed in getting this stuff banned or very severely limited, on the basis that it's all stolen work (ie, technologically remixed human work that is uncompensated). It's not easy to get that under existing law (although I'm sure some courts would be willing to entertain theories about it), but legislatures can be lobbied, and the fight there will come down to a war between the tech firms and the creative class. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

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